When writing a blog, sometimes you regret stating an opinion, especially if the opinion can so easily be proven wrong by the market. Till 11:30 I thought great, of course I say up and we go down. Then we retraced; I thought great again a long tail. At 4pm I have to admit that today's action feels different. The low is lower, the up volume was low. The total volume was however also below average. As always the market will tell us in due time what it plans are.
Tomorrow Uncle Ben Day - since no interest rate is expected, everyone will be reading the text as if they are expert tea leave readers.
I have two graphs for you.
The first one is the butterfly as usual. The second one is the current butterfly after (a simulated) full downward adjustment. I like to be mindful of the potential profit of the trade after I commit myself to a direction. Currently the profit would be $1660.- with a BE point of 725. This $1660 gives me the peace of mind to sit on my hands while the market breaks 700 (as it did this morning in the Rut Future). Since I already have been taken by 'surprise' once (see 7/28) I can not afford to let it happen again.
All in all August has proven to be a long month, am really working for my money :)
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