Extremes

We need an extreme to turn a trend; spike in VIX, spike in Volume, spike in Range, Spike (in low) price.

Today's graphs shows you the trend in the Average True Range of the SPY. In the good old days, for those who can still remember, the SPY would have a range of average $1.00. Last month the AVERAGE range was over $7.00. Currently we see the Average True Range declining a bit. Indeed a bit, but as always it starts with a bit. The ATR is now $5.22.

Beside truly trading the swings it was very difficult to make money in this market. This holds true for us retail traders but also for the "big" boys. In the end this will lead to more normal conditions.
By now about a third of the SP 500 has a price under $15.00. I can't plot this on a graph with the software I have, but as I said jokingly when the RUT hit 430 - another 430 points and we for sure have the bottom. This same holds for the amount of stocks under $15. At a certain price you don't even bother to sell your stock - you just sit with the pain and wait for better times.

This week the door will close on our December trades. Decisions has to be made to move in and if so in what size. My plan is to move in - on a very small scale, probably less than 20% of my normal size. I already have some December profits in the books, due to some "lucky" sell and close of some RUT put and call verticals. Adding a small Iron Condor will satisfy the most basic level of my monthly goals.