April 21st

Short post - no action in the butterfly trade other than banking some theta (banking is hard work :)

Looking at NYSE volume - Yesterday the volume was 18M which is above average and for sure that made yesterday a distribution day. Today the futures started very weak - and I was very much ready to enjoy myself with some more downside trade. Very quickly it became apparent that the downside was not the side of choice. You just need to see the action in the VIX after this mornings open to see that the fear was subsiding. I never take a short trade - other then a very quick scalp if the vix is not indicating rising fear. At 10:30 you got conformation in the /zb and even a little earlier in the TLT. Both vehicle are currently good indicator for fear and risk aversion. Today the NYSE volume end just under 17M which I think is quite impressive considering all the imagined weakness.

All in all I would be surprised if this week would show bullishness to the degree that we take out Friday's high - I anticipate a lower vix, sideways action with a slight upward bias - as always I right till proven wrong and by then I reserve the right to turn on a dime.

Cu all at the other end of the coming evening