Theta Positive - Option Trading: April 27th

No changes in the RUT butterflies - 14 more days like this - and we will have reached the finish lines with a nice profit :)

Till noon it looked liked the market was still in a upward bias - to me sentiment changed after 12 o'clock - my usd/cad and my /zb trade both came back to their entry points - both had been nicely profitable - for both I had had longer term intentions - both came out for a scratch since I had put stop orders in, just better then the entry price. No regrets on the closing orders since both run further in the 'wrong' direction - also no regrets no not taking profits earlier as said I entered them as for a longer term trade.

I am waiting for the long inflation, fall of the dollar trade to start. My vehicles of choice are short /zb, long /6c, long DBA, Long DBC, long UNG, short cash covered puts on CHK, PCU and GS.

/zb and tlt because the long term interest rate will go up before FED moves the short rate
/6c because Canada is a good energy and gold play
DBA and DBC - with inflation the commodities will come in play
UNG and CHK because one day the US have to start using more natural gas
PCU - copper commodity trade
GS - because they will find a way to make money from the next trend - even if its not long inflation, short dollar.

I will wait very patience for this trade to materialize. I have TLT short since 122 and am writing short puts on the position to pay for interest and difficult to short fees. DBA and DBC are not yet in play - I am considering some time spreads on DBA - need to study that a bit more. CHK has been part of my portfolio since Oct '08 - nicely profitable. UNG is underwater - own it for around 24. GS is underwater even with the big up move we recently had - missed part of the up move due to a short call on the position.