May 27th

The market is changing its character - as I twittered two weeks ago - I sensed a change in the way the equity market and the treasury are correlating. I think the last couple of days are proof of that change. The treasuries are taken over by their own fear for the deficit and seem uncorrelated to the increasing fear in the equity market.

My long term plays are short dollar, short treasuries, long energy, long commodities. How do I enter these long plays while using my Theta Positive attitude? Very moderately - I won't start with buying the underlying to ride the possible trend - I start with selling naked puts on equities which support this long term view.
For example on EWC. This gives me exposure to the Looney, to energy, short the dollar and long commodities. Same with EWZ.
The EWC JUL 21 put gives 80ct - 80/2100 = 4% for 50 days. If you believe in the correctness the original fundamental assessment then the risk of owning a couple of EWC @ 21 -.80 = 20.20 is not really a problem if the trade goes against you in the short run.

The butterfly is enjoying this period of chop. The biggest danger (for me) is over trading the intraday moves - So far I am doing really well.